What to know for NFL Week 7: Score picks, bold predictions, fantasy tips, key stats for every game (2024)

Matchup X factor: Raiders running back Josh Jacobs and the Las Vegas running game. This unit ranks last in expected points added per designed carry, and Jacobs has recorded minus-52 rush yards over expectation, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Just an average rushing game should help beat the Bears. -- Walder

Injuries: Raiders | Bears

What to know for fantasy: The Bears have allowed 7.4 yards per passing play. You should have Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers in your fantasy lineup regardless who's playing quarterback for the Raiders. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 5-1 with overs this season, the best of any team. On the flip side, the Raiders are 5-1 with unders. Read more.

Moody's pick: Raiders 27, Bears 13
Walder's pick: Bears 20, Raiders 17
FPI prediction: CHI, 55.7% (by an average of 2 points)

Matchup must-reads: Adams: My purpose on Raiders is to influence game ... Bears' Bagent to complete journey from D-II QB to NFL starter

Steelers (3-2) at Rams (3-3)

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LAR -3 (42.5)

Storyline to watch: The Steelers are averaging 15.8 points per game this season, which ranks 30th in the NFL and is their second-lowest mark through five games under Mike Tomlin. Do they have a chance to right the ship in Los Angeles? The young Rams defense has shown promise, including a second-half shutout against the Cardinals last week, but ranks 18th in the NFL in DVOA. -- Sarah Barshop

Bold prediction: Steelers safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will get his first interception of the season. Down their top two running backs, the Rams will rely even more on their prolific passing offense, one that ranks third in the league with 1,677 passing yards and is even more explosive with the return of receiver Cooper Kupp to complement rookie breakout Puka Nacua. Fitzpatrick hasn't been in position to make many plays on the ball this season, but Steelers defensive coordinator Teryl Austin credited the "law of averages" in explaining Fitzpatrick's lack of splash plays. -- Brooke Pryor

Stat to know: The Steelers' offensive problems go well beyond gaining yards, as Pittsburgh's 29% red zone touchdown percentage this season is its worst through five games since 2001 (20%).

Matchup X factor: Rams right tackle Rob Havenstein. The best units in this game are the Rams' passing attack and the Steelers' pass defense. The quickest way for Pittsburgh to win that battle is for Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt to get to Rams QB Matthew Stafford, and Havenstein -- who ranks only 44th out of 69 tackles in pass block win rate (85%) -- will be the one charged with stopping Watt. -- Walder

Injuries: Steelers | Rams

What to know for fantasy: The Rams rank fourth in yards per completion (11.2) and second in passing first downs per game (13.7). Receivers Kupp and Nacua remain must starts. The Steelers' defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Tomlin is 44-40 outright in his coaching career as an underdog. He is the only head coach in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record as an underdog among coaches who have been an underdog in more than 50 games. Read more.

Moody's pick: Rams 28, Steelers 20
Walder's pick: Rams 30, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 58.3% (by an average of 2.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: What do we know about Pickett after 17 starts as a Steeler? ... McVay says his future son 'knows better' than to be born on game day ... RB Williams expected to miss multiple games

Cardinals (1-5) at Seahawks (3-2)

4:05 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: SEA -7 (44.5)

Storyline to watch: The Cardinals on Wednesday designated quarterback Kyler Murray to return from the physically unable to perform list, allowing the quarterback to practice for the first time since he tore an ACL in December. Murray won't be ready to play Sunday, so Joshua Dobbs will remain Arizona's starter. He'll face a resurgent Seattle defense that held Joe Burrow and the Bengals to only 185 passing yards in Week 6 and is allowing a league-best 3.2 yards per carry. -- Brady Henderson

Bold prediction: Dobbs will throw for 300 yards and lead the Cardinals with 100 rushing yards. With Dobbs' days as a starter winding down, he'll show he's capable of being a starter for another team. Seattle has given up an average of 257.6 passing yards per game this season. Though the Seahawks have improved recently on defense, they did give up more than 300 yards passing to their first three opponents. Arizona will be the fourth to go 300-plus on Seattle. -- Josh Weinfuss

Stat to know: Geno Smith's 75% competition percentage on play-action since the start of 2022 is second best in the NFL, and his 11 passing touchdowns off play-action rank seventh in the NFL over that span. The Cardinals' defense has allowed a 72% competition percentage off play-action since 2022 (second worst in the NFL).

Matchup X factor: Cardinals cornerback Marco Wilson. He has allowed 2.3 yards per coverage snap this season, fifth most among cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Arizona needs more from him if it's going to hang with Seattle. -- Walder

Injuries: Cardinals | Seahawks

What to know for fantasy: It is a tie between the Seahawks' and Chargers' defenses for the most fantasy points allowed to wide receivers this year, which bodes well for Arizona receiver Marquise Brown. Brown caught only four of 11 targets in Week 6 against the Rams and finished with 7.4 fantasy points, but he averaged more than 16 points in his previous four games. Brown and fellow receiver Michael Wilson should have success Sunday. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Cardinals are an underdog for the 15th straight game, the longest active streak in the NFL. It is also the longest streak for the Cardinals since they were an underdog in 31 consecutive games spanning 2002-04. Read more.

Moody's pick: Seahawks 24, Cardinals 21
Walder's pick: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 20
FPI prediction: SEA, 79.6% (by an average of 11.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals' Murray, Baker back at practice ... Seahawks' Metcalf on penalties: 'Not going to change who I am' ... 'It's very frustrating': Red zone woes holding Cardinals back

Packers (2-3) at Broncos (1-5)

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: GB -1 (45)

Storyline to watch: Broncos coach Sean Payton has said a quality run game is in the team's "DNA,'' but he has also said he needs to be more patient and actually call games that way. And that's something to keep an eye on, given the occasional leakiness of the Packers' run defense. The Broncos' running backs had just 19 and 15 carries in losses to the Chiefs and Jets, respectively, over the past two games, despite having the No. 3 run block win rate in the NFL (74.2%). The Packers are 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and have allowed more than 200 yards on the ground twice already this season. -- Jeff Legwold

Bold prediction: The Packers will find the end zone on their first possession of the game, ending a three-game streak of being held to three points or fewer in the first half. No Packers team has been held to three or fewer first-half points in four straight games since December 1990, and no NFL team has done that since 2021. Coach Matt LaFleur had a bye week to come up with something different for his opening script, and remember, this is a Denver team that has allowed 30 or more points in three games this season. -- Rob Demovsky

Stat to know: Jordan Love has thrown one touchdown pass and five interceptions in his past two games (both Green Bay losses). He is the first Packers QB to throw multiple interceptions in back-to-back games since Brett Hundley in December 2017. The last to throw multiple interceptions in three straight games was Brett Favre in 2005.

Matchup X factor: Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson actually started solid this season, but his QBR has gone down each week -- ending with just a 9.8 in last week's loss to the Chiefs. He has to get back to early-season form if Denver is going to have a chance. -- Walder

Injuries: Packers | Broncos

What to know for fantasy: Wide receivers have scored the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game against the Packers' defense. Managers looking to start Wilson at QB and Jerry Jeudy or Courtland Sutton at WR this week should temper their expectations. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: Based on the current spread, the Packers are favored for the first time this season. They were one of five teams that weren't favored in the first six weeks, along with the Colts, Cardinals, Jets and Panthers. Read more.

Moody's pick: Packers 31, Broncos 17
Walder's pick: Packers 26, Broncos 24
FPI prediction: GB, 56.8% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Jones hopes to spark Packers' struggling offense ... Can Wilson turn his season around?

Chargers (2-3) at Chiefs (5-1)

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: KC -5.5 (48)

Storyline to watch: Expect a close game decided by less than a touchdown because that's what this rivalry has become. Five of the past six games between the Chiefs and Chargers have been decided by six points or fewer, with two ending in overtime. The outlier was a 38-21 blowout win for the Chargers in the final game of the 2020 season when the Chiefs rested their key players after securing the top playoff seed. All five of L.A.'s games this season have been decided by seven points or fewer, and it would be an upset if this game deviated from the recent Chiefs-Chargers pattern. -- Adam Teicher

Bold prediction: Kansas City will sack quarterback Justin Herbert at least three times. Herbert and the Chargers' offense haven't looked like themselves their past two games, starting with a Week 4 matchup against the Raiders that included career lows in completions and passing yards for Herbert along with a fractured left finger. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, the Cowboys pressured Herbert on 47.6% of his dropbacks in Week 6, the highest rate of pressure he has faced this season. Kansas City's defense is 12th in the league with 17 sacks and could take advantage of a struggling offensive line and an injured quarterback. -- Kris Rhim

Stat to know: Arguably no two QBs have been better on the move or when pressured since the start of the 2020 season than Patrick Mahomes and Herbert. They both rank top five in QBR under pressure, outside the pocket and when blitzed over that span.

Matchup X factor: Chiefs wide receivers Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman or Justyn Ross. Mahomes just needs one of these guys to step up as a second receiving option behind tight end Travis Kelce to kick the Kansas City offense into gear. -- Walder

Injuries: Chargers | Chiefs

What to know for fantasy: The Chargers' secondary has issues, allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL. The Chargers' defense also leads the league in third-down penalties, which is good news for fantasy managers who have Chiefs in their fantasy lineups. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: This is Mahomes' 53rd home start, including playoffs, and the 52nd in which the Chiefs were favored. The lone exception came last season in a loss to the Bills. Read more.

Moody's pick: Chiefs 31, Chargers 27
Walder's pick: Chiefs 28, Chargers 21
FPI prediction: KC, 68.5% (by an average of 6.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Herbert again struggles in loss to Cowboys ... Hardman heads back to Chiefs in trade with Jets

Dolphins (5-1) at Eagles (5-1)

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: PHI -1.5 (51.5)

Storyline to watch: Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, former teammates and competitors in the Alabama quarterback room, square off for the first time at the professional level. They steward the top two offenses in the NFL in yards per game (Miami at 498.7 yards per game, Philadelphia at 395.0). This matchup will also feature the NFL's top two rushing teams (Miami at 181.8 yards per game, Philadelphia at 150). -- Tim McManus

Bold prediction: Miami's defense will score a touchdown. The Dolphins' three-game drought without forcing a turnover will end Sunday night. Hurts has already surpassed his interception total from last season (seven), and he and the Eagles are coming off a four-turnover game last week. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques

Stat to know: A big factor in Miami's success is its volume and effectiveness with motion at the snap. The Dolphins have a player in motion at the snap on 60% of their plays, the highest rate by any team since ESPN began tracking motion in 2017. Miami has excelled on these plays as well, leading the NFL in yards per play and yards per rush, but the Eagles' defense has defended motion at the snap well, ranking second in yards per play when motion is involved.

Matchup X factor: Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. I'm still waiting for the talent of the Miami defense to yield results, but Wilkins is making an impact rushing the passer. In addition to his 3.5 sacks, Wilkins ranks fourth in pass rush win rate at defensive tackle. -- Walder

Injuries: Dolphins | Eagles

What to know for fantasy: Wide receivers have scored the sixth-most fantasy points per game against the Eagles' secondary. The Dolphins' offense has been epic through the first six weeks of the season. Start all Miami players, including Tagovailoa, who leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns. See Week 7 rankings. -- Moody

Betting nugget: The Eagles are 12-1 in games played in September and October the past two seasons, the best record in the NFL over that span. The only loss was last week against the Jets. Read more.

Moody's pick: Dolphins 35, Eagles 30
Walder's pick: Dolphins 30, Eagles 27
FPI prediction: MIA, 58.5% (by an average of 3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Ramsey practices after meniscus surgery ... Eagles about to enter toughest part of their schedule

49ers (5-1) at Vikings (2-4)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: SF -7 (44)

Storyline to watch: There will be plenty of focus on 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, who leads the NFL in QBR. But the matchup that will dictate whether this game is close will involve the 49ers' defense, which is allowing an NFL-low 14.5 points per game. In their first game without injured receiver Justin Jefferson, the Vikings scored 12 offensive points and managed 4.0 yards per play last week against the Bears' porous defense, both season lows. -- Kevin Seifert

Bold prediction: Purdy will follow his worst professional game by throwing for three touchdown passes and more than 275 yards. The Vikings blitz at, by far, the highest rate in the league (57% of drop backs), but Purdy has repeatedly proved capable of making opponents pay for that aggressive approach. Since the start of last season, Purdy has a QBR of 81 against the blitz, which ranks fourth in the NFL. Combined with his 8-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in prime time, the recipe for a big bounce back is there for Purdy. -- Nick Wagoner

Stat to know: The 49ers have not lost the turnover battle in 16 straight games, the longest streak since the Patriots did so in 21 straight across the 2011-12 seasons.