COUNTRY • SUMMARY
UNITED STATES
Last Update: 2 Jun 2024 2:15 GMT+0
The United States 10-Year Government Bond currently offers a yield of 4.503%. This yield reflects the return investors can expect if they hold the bond until maturity. Government bond yields are critical indicators of economic confidence and investor sentiment.
The spread between United States 10-Year and 2-Year government bonds is -37.4 basis points (bp). This spread is a measure of the difference in yields between long-term and short-term government debt. Long-term yields should be greater than short-term ones.
Current analysis: Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities.
United States Central Bank Rate stands at 5.50%, following the most recent adjustment in July 2023.
According to Standard & Poor's agency, the United States credit rating is AA+.
The current quotation for United States 5-Years Credit Default Swap is 39.69 basis points. Correspondingly, the implied probability of default is 0.66%.
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United States Yield Curve
If data are not all visible, swipe table left
| Residual Maturity | Yield | ZC Price | Last Change | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last | Chg 1M | Chg 6M | Last | Chg 1M | Chg 6M | ||||
| 1 month | 5.369% | +1.5 bp | -3.0 bp | 31 May | |||||
| 2 months | 5.391% | -0.2 bp | -1.5 bp | 31 May | |||||
| 3 months | 5.409% | +0.3 bp | +2.1 bp | 31 May | |||||
| 4 months | 5.404% | -0.3 bp | -1.7 bp | 31 May | |||||
| 6 months | 5.384% | -0.4 bp | +0.9 bp | 31 May | |||||
| 1 year | 5.192% | +1.8 bp | +14.5 bp | 95.06 | -0.02 % | -0.15 % | 31 May | ||
| 2 years | 4.877% | -1.0 bp | +32.6 bp | 90.92 | +0.02 % | -0.61 % | 31 May | ||
| 3 years | 4.683% | -4.6 bp | +37.2 bp | 87.17 | +0.13 % | -1.07 % | 31 May | ||
| 5 years | 4.509% | -7.0 bp | +36.8 bp | 80.21 | +0.34 % | -1.75 % | 31 May | ||
| 7 years | 4.510% | -7.3 bp | +29.7 bp | 73.43 | +0.48 % | -1.98 % | 31 May | ||
| 10 years | 4.503% | -8.7 bp | +29.4 bp | 64.37 | +0.83 % | -2.78 % | 31 May | ||
| 20 years | 4.727% | -9.8 bp | +16.3 bp | 39.70 | +1.87 % | -3.08 % | 31 May | ||
| 30 years | 4.650% | -7.6 bp | +25.8 bp | 25.58 | +2.24 % | -7.12 % | 31 May | ||
| Last Update: 2 Jun 2024 2:15 GMT+0 | |||||||||
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United States Yield Analysis
Normally, longer-duration interest rates are higher than short-duration. So, the yield curve normally slopes upward as duration increases. For this reason, the spread (i.e. the yield difference) between a longer and a shorter bond should be positive. If not, the yield curve can be flat or inverted.
The curve convexity is measured considering some key bond durations (usually 2 years and 10 years, but also other maturities).
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| Residual Maturity | Yield | Spread vs Bond | Spread vs Central Bank Rate (5.50%) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 months | 1 year | 2 years | 5 years | 10 years | ||||
| 30 years | 4.650% | -75.9 bp | -54.2 bp | -22.7 bp | 14.1 bp | 14.7 bp | -85.0 bp | |
| 10 years | 4.503% | -90.6 bp | -68.9 bp | -37.4 bp | -0.6 bp | -99.7 bp | ||
| 5 years | 4.509% | -90.0 bp | -68.3 bp | -36.8 bp | -99.1 bp | |||
| 2 years | 4.877% | -53.2 bp | -31.5 bp | -62.3 bp | ||||
| 1 year | 5.192% | -21.7 bp | -30.8 bp | |||||
| 3 months | 5.409% | -9.1 bp | ||||||
Focusing on 2 years Government Bond:
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| 2Y vs 1Y | -31.5 bp | Yield Curve is inverted in Short-Term Maturities | ||
| 5Y vs 2Y | -36.8 bp | Yield Curve is inverted in Mid-Term vs Short-Term Maturities | ||
| 10Y vs 2Y | -37.4 bp | Yield Curve is inverted in Long-Term vs Short-Term Maturities |
Readings that may interest you
United States Credit Ratings
A credit rating is an assessment of the creditworthiness of a borrower (in general terms or with respect to a particular debt or financial obligation). For a deeper analysis of credit ratings, click here United States Credit Ratings History
| Rating Agency | Rating | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Standard & Poor's | AA+ | - |
| Moody's Investors Service | Aaa | negative |
| Fitch Ratings | AA+ | - |
| DBRS | AAA | - |
United States Interest Rates
A bank rate is the interest rate at which a nation's central bank lends money to domestic banks, often in the form of very short-term loans.
| Interest Rates | Value | |
|---|---|---|
| Central Bank Rate | 5.50% |
United States Credit Default Swaps
The term credit default swap (CDS) refers to a financial derivative that allows an investor to swap or offset their credit risk with that of another investor. To swap the risk of default, the lender buys a CDS from another investor who agrees to reimburse the lender in the case the borrower defaults.
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| Credit Default Swap | CDS Value | Var % 1W | Var % 1M | Var % 1Y | Implied PD(*) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Years CDS | 39.69 | +7.62 % | +7.65 % | +7.62 % | 0.66 % | |
| (*) Implied probability of default, calculated on the hypothesis of a 40% recovery rate. |
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United States 10Y Bond Yield Spread
The United States 10Y Government Bond has a 4.503% yield.
A positive spread, marked by , means that the 10Y Bond Yield is higher than the corresponding foreign bond. Instead, a negative spread is marked by a green circle .
Click on the values in "Current Spread" column, for the historical series of the spread.
Click on the "Compare" button, for a report with the full comparison between the two countries, with all the available data.
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| United States 10Y vs | Current Spread | Chg 1M | Chg 6M | Compare Countries | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Japan 10Y | 344.9 bp | -25.0 bp | -5.4 bp | ||
| vs China 10Y | 217.4 bp | -10.9 bp | +66.3 bp | ||
| vs Germany 10Y | 184.5 bp | -20.8 bp | -0.5 bp | ||
| vs France 10Y | 133.9 bp | -21.2 bp | +5.1 bp | ||
| vs Spain 10Y | 112.0 bp | -16.3 bp | +26.4 bp | ||
| vs Canada 10Y | 84.4 bp | +2.3 bp | +8.4 bp | ||
| vs Italy 10Y | 50.9 bp | -21.9 bp | +39.0 bp | ||
| vs United Kingdom 10Y | 17.2 bp | -13.9 bp | +14.1 bp | ||
| vs Australia 10Y | 5.7 bp | -5.9 bp | +24.5 bp | ||
| vs India 10Y | -248.3 bp | +8.9 bp | +59.8 bp | ||
| vs Brazil 10Y | -729.3 bp | -35.3 bp | -69.0 bp | ||
| vs Russia 10Y | -1062.7 bp | -66.7 bp | -262.6 bp |
United States Government Bonds Prices
Price Simulation: bonds with a face value of 100, with different coupon rates.
The highlighted column refers to the zero coupon bond.
Click on for a forecast of the yield.
If data are not all visible, swipe table left
| Residual Maturity | Yield | Bond Price - with different Coupon Rates | Fx | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 9% | ||||
| 30 years | 4.650% | 25.58 | 41.58 | 73.59 | 105.60 | 137.61 | 169.62 | ||
| 20 years | 4.727% | 39.70 | 52.46 | 77.97 | 103.48 | 128.99 | 154.51 | ||
| 10 years | 4.503% | 64.37 | 72.29 | 88.11 | 103.93 | 119.76 | 135.58 | ||
| 7 years | 4.510% | 73.43 | 79.32 | 91.11 | 102.89 | 114.67 | 126.45 | ||
| 5 years | 4.509% | 80.21 | 84.60 | 93.38 | 102.15 | 110.93 | 119.71 | ||
| 3 years | 4.683% | 87.17 | 89.91 | 95.39 | 100.87 | 106.35 | 111.83 | ||
| 2 years | 4.877% | 90.92 | 92.78 | 96.50 | 100.23 | 103.95 | 107.68 | ||
| 1 year | 5.192% | 95.06 | 96.01 | 97.92 | 99.82 | 101.72 | 103.62 | ||
| Maturity Date | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | |||
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