Interest Rates - Frequently Asked Questions (2024)

Are the CMT rates the same as the yields on actual Treasury securities?

CMT yields are read directly from the Treasury's daily par yield curve, which is derived from indicative closing bid market price quotations on Treasury securities. However, CMT rates are read from fixed, constant maturity points on the curve and may not match the exact yield on any one specific security. For more information on the daily Treasury yield curve, see the link to our Treasury Yield Curve Methodology page.

Are the CMT yields annual yields?

CMT yields are read directly from the Treasury's daily par yield curve and represent "bond equivalent yields" for securities that pay semiannual interest, which are expressed on a simple annualized basis. This is consistent with market practices for quoting bond yields in the market and makes the CMT yields directly comparable to quotations on other bond market yields. As such, these yields are not effective annualized yields or Annualized Percentage Yields (APY), which include the effect of compounding. To convert a CMT yield to an APY you need to apply the standard financial formula:

APY = (1 + I/2)2-1

Where ”I” is the CMT rate expressed in decimals. For example, if the 5-year CMT rate was 8.00%, then the annualized effective yield, or APY, would be:

APY = (1 + .0800/2)2-1
APY = 1.081600 -1
APY = 0.081600

And, expressed as a percent:

APY = 8.16%

Are the CMT rates used to set Adjustable Rate Mortgage (ARM) rates?

Treasury does not make the determination as to which, if any, CMT rate index is used to set an ARM rate. ARM rates are set by the financial institution that made or holds the mortgage. If you have an ARM, you should ask your lender if a Treasury CMT index rate is used to adjust your ARM. ARM holders can find an abundant source of information on how these rates are adjusted by searching the internet for "ARM Indexes and CMT rates".

What is the difference between the "Daily Treasury Long-Term Rates" and the "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates"?

The "Daily Treasury Long-Term Rates" are simply the arithmetic average of the daily closing bid yields on all outstanding fixed coupon bonds (i.e., inflation-indexed bonds are excluded) that are neither due nor callable for at least 10 years as of the date calculated. "The Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" are specific rates read from the daily Treasury par yield curve at the specific "constant maturity" indicated. Thus, a yield curve rate is the single yield at a specific point on the yield curve. For example, the 20-year daily yield curve rate (i.e., the 20-year CMT) represents the par yield for a new theoretical 20-year bond as of that date.

These tables only show daily yields, how do I get the weekly, monthly, and/or annual averages?

Treasury does not publish the weekly, monthly, or annual averages of these yields. However, the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System also publishes these rates in their Statistical Release H.15. The web site for the H.15 includes links that have the weekly, monthly, and annual averages for the CMT indexes. Please see the Federal Reserve websitefor the current daily rates and the Board’s Data Download Program for the weekly, monthly and annual averages.

Why do longer CMT maturities sometimes have yields lower than the shorter maturities (i.e., "inverted yield curve rates")?

The par yield curve and CMT yields reflect actual bond market activity and current economic conditions. Market conditions can be highly volatile and include investors' beliefs as to the direction of future interest rates as well as monetary policy that may be actively pursued by the Federal Reserve. Because of this, short term rates can sometimes exceed longer term rates.

Are the par yield curve and the CMT rates an indicator of future rates?

The par yield curve and the CMT rates merely indicate what rates were in the past and what they are now. Treasury recognizes that many researchers use the CMT rates to develop complex yield analyses and attempt to project these rates into the future. However, future economic and monetary policies that impact the par yield curve cannot be accurately forecast, and thus attempts to forecast future CMT rates must be considered risky, at best. Treasury does not project future interest rates and neither endorses nor discourages work by other researchers in their attempts to project rates.

Does the par yield curve use a day count based on actual days in a year or a 30/360 year basis?

Yields on all Treasury securities are based on actual day counts on a 365- or 366-day year basis, not a 30/360 basis, and the yield curve is based on securities that pay semiannual interest. All yield curve rates are considered "bond-equivalent" yields.

Does the par yield curve assume semiannual interest payments or is it a zero-coupon curve?

The par yield curve is based on securities that pay interest on a semiannual basis and the yields are "bond-equivalent" yields. Treasury does not create or publish daily zero-coupon curve rates.


Does the par yield curve only assume semiannual interest payment from 2-years out (i.e., since that is the shortest maturity coupon Treasury issue)?

No. All yields on the par yield curve are on a bond-equivalent basis. Therefore, the yields at any point on the par yield curve are consistent with a semiannual coupon security with that amount of time remaining to maturity.

For more information regarding these statistics contact the Office of Debt Management by email at debt.management@treasury.gov.
For other Public Debt information contact (202) 504-3350.

Interest Rates - Frequently Asked Questions (2024)

FAQs

What are the three main factors that affect interest rates? ›

How are interest rates determined? Market conditions and the risks associated with lending largely influence interest rates. Factors such as inflation, economic growth, and availability of funds also play a role in determining interest rates.

How do interest rates affect the economy? ›

Higher interest rates tend to negatively affect earnings and stock prices (often with the exception of the financial sector). Changes in the interest rate tend to impact the stock market quickly but often have a lagged effect on other key economic sectors such as mortgages and auto loans.

What causes interest rates to rise? ›

When inflation is high, the government raises rates to deter borrowers from taking loans in an effort to reduce spending. The current price of goods might skyrocket by the time the borrower pays it back. This will reduce the lender's purchasing power. When the demand for credit is high, so are interest rates.

What determines interest rates? ›

Interest rates are determined in a free market where supply and demand interact. The supply of funds is influenced by the willingness of consumers, businesses, and governments to save. The demand for funds reflects the desires of businesses, households, and governments to spend more than they take in as revenues.

What problems are caused by high interest rates? ›

When interest rates rise, stock markets typically decline. Because borrowing becomes more expensive, people and businesses tend to spend less. This decreased spending may mean companies hire less or have layoffs, see lower productivity and face reduced earnings. These effects often cause stock prices to fall.

What influences high interest rates? ›

Inflation. Inflation will also affect interest rate levels. The higher the inflation rate, the more interest rates are likely to rise. This occurs because lenders will demand higher interest rates as compensation for the decrease in purchasing power of the money they are paid in the future.

What happens when interest rates are too high? ›

Central banks set benchmark interest rates to guide borrowing costs and the pace of economic growth. Lower rates spur growth while higher ones restrain spending, investment, and stock market valuations. If rates rise too quickly, demand may decline, causing businesses to reduce output and cut jobs.

Who benefits when interest rates go up? ›

Unsurprisingly, bond buyers, lenders, and savers all benefit from higher rates in the early days.

How does raising interest rates bring down inflation? ›

Another potential result of higher interest rates: Businesses may pull back on borrowing and investing, which means consumers and businesses would start spending less and eventually bring demand back down to a level that's commensurate with supply.

Why is inflation so high right now? ›

Inflation is not about how much things cost, but rather how prices are changing in a given month or year. There's no single culprit. Early in the pandemic, there were fewer workers and disruptions in the availability of goods due to snarled shipping routes and shuttered childcare centers, among other factors.

Do interest rates go up during recession? ›

Do Interest Rates Rise or Fall in a Recession? Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.

Why raising interest rates is wrong? ›

Rates too high or too low distort financial markets. That ultimately undermines the productive capacity of the economy in the long run and can lead to bubbles, which destabilizes the economy,” he said.

Who controls the interest rate? ›

The Federal Reserve determines the price of borrowing money through one of its primary interest rates, the fed funds rate.

What are the four factors that influence interest rates? ›

Factors Affecting Interest Rates:

Inflation: Rising prices prompt lenders to demand higher rates. Monetary Policy: Central banks influence rates by managing the money supply. Credit Risk: Borrowers' creditworthiness impacts rates. Global Economic Conditions: International economic trends affect rates.

Does the president have any control over interest rates? ›

The president can nominate key officials

“Other than nominations, the president has zero impact on Federal Reserve interest rate policy,” said Scott Fulford, a senior economist at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

What are the three factors which determine the interest rate? ›

Demand for and supply of money, government borrowing, inflation, Central Bank's monetary policy objectives affect the interest rates.

What are the three main interest rates? ›

There are essentially three main types of interest rates: the nominal interest rate, the effective rate, and the real interest rate.

What 3 factors determine how much interest you earn? ›

The more frequently interest compounds, the faster your money grows. However, the frequency of compounding isn't the only factor determining your interest earnings. How much money you deposit, how long you leave it there and the account's interest rate all affect the total amount of interest you will earn.

What three factors affect simple interest? ›

The formula to calculate simple interest is made up of multiplying three factors: principal amount, rate, and time. The principal is the original amount of the loan, the rate is how fast the loan grows, and the time is how long the loan is borrowed.

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